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Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that split the country and unleashed disorder, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.

That is the message from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Establishments Not Ready

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."

Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue

The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.

"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."

Legal Framework

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a referendum.

Absence of Serious Debate

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of serious debate, said the journalist.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the volume, no writer advocates unity or the current situation. Each authors two articles that strive for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.

Debates range over national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and provoke discussion.

"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be good arguments on either side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unity but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"The Irish government does need to establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.

Probability of Referendum

McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"

Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will succeed here and the other side will in the end be defeated but all factions has has valuable insights to learn from the other's viewpoints."

Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue

Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."